Research
Qualitate MedTech Coverage: TAVR ‘26
What 41 physicians expect for TAVR volumes through 2027, valve share between SAPIEN and Evolut, and what the PROGRESS trial could mean for moderate aortic stenosis.
Overview
The PROGRESS trial reads out at TCT on November 2, 2026, testing TAVR (transcatheter aortic valve replacement) against watchful monitoring in patients with moderate aortic stenosis (AS). A positive result could open a new patient population. Another question is how much a win would actually change practice. To answer both, we interviewed the physicians who perform and refer for TAVR in the week before the readout.
Qualitate’s expert AI Interviewer conducted one-on-one interviews with 41 physicians in one week, including referring cardiologists, interventional cardiologists, and cardiac surgeons. Interviews lasted a median of 34 minutes and covered program volumes, valve mix now and 24 months out, and physicians’ expectations for the PROGRESS result and what happens after it.
Download the full 30-page report via the sidebar form.
Key takeaways
- PROGRESS trial: Physicians are split, with median 50% odds of hitting the primary endpoint and 12 of 22 expecting a significant or practice-changing impact on moderate AS adoption.
- Volumes and indications: TAVR Y/Y growth slows from 12% in 2026 to 6% in 2027. Moderate AS is <2% of cases today, and 29 of 33 physicians see little or no change to capacity or volume from Medicare’s September TAVR coverage update.
- Case mix: SAPIEN holds ~76% share over the next 24 months, while Evolut slips from 19.5% to 17.4%.
What you get in the full 30-page report
- The TAVR market today: program volumes from 2024 to 2027E, valve case mix now and in 24 months, a program-by-program view of valve choice, first-choice valve by anatomy, and Medicare’s September TAVR coverage update.
- Moderate AS today: how many programs already treat it, the indication mix of their cases, and the insurance and referral bottlenecks.
- The PROGRESS readout: odds of success and the expected result, readout scenarios, reasons it could meet or miss its endpoint, what will decide adoption, adoption impact and the barriers that could slow it, whether the extra cases are new patients, and views from outside the US.
- Qualitate’s MedTech coverage roadmap: the companies and markets we cover, and launches planned through 2Q ’27.
- Physician quotes throughout, with access to the underlying transcripts on request.
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