Research
CGM ’26: How Medicare coverage could expand adoption
What 55 US physicians expect for continuous glucose monitor use through 2028, market share outlook for Abbott and Dexcom, and how Medicare coverage could change adoption for Type 2 (not on insulin).
Overview
Medicare coverage could bring continuous glucose monitors (CGMs) to more type 2 diabetes patients (not on insulin). But when might coverage arrive, and how much would a glucose-lowering drug requirement limit uptake? We asked physicians about the timing, conditions and impact of a potential expansion, alongside their expectations for CGM use and brand choice through 2028.
Qualitate’s expert AI Interviewer conducted one-on-one interviews with 55 US physicians in one week, including 35 endocrinologists and 20 primary care physicians. Interviews lasted a median of 42 minutes. The report compares their expectations with Abbott’s and Dexcom’s 3Q26 earnings commentary.
Download the full 34-page report via the sidebar form.
Key takeaways
- Medicare coverage: Dexcom expects a Medicare CMS coverage proposal this year and coverage starting mid-2027; physicians are more cautious, putting a median 20% chance on a proposal by the end of 2026.
- T2D Non-Insulin Intensive Opportunity: If coverage came in mid-2027 (before physicians’ expectations), they see CGM market penetration among their Medicare type 2 patients not on insulin nearly tripling (from 20% to 58% by 2028), even with a glucose-lowering drug requirement.
- Brand mix shift: Physicians expect Abbott to gain incremental share in insulin-dependent patients with Libre Duo and pump integrations, and Dexcom to gain slightly in non-insulin-dependent patients with coverage expansion.
What you get in the full 34-page report
- CGM adoption through 2028: penetration by patient group, expected user growth, differences between primary care and endocrinologists, and the drivers and barriers to adoption.
- Brand share and product outlook: Abbott, Dexcom, MiniMed and Senseonics by patient group, including the role of Abbott’s Libre Duo, Dexcom G8, pump compatibility, cost and insurance coverage.
- Medicare coverage scenarios: physicians’ expectations for timing and restrictions, and how a mid-2027 expansion could change uptake among type 2 patients not on insulin.
- GLP-1s and the company outlook: how physicians pair CGMs with GLP-1 drugs, what that means for the pool of CGM candidates, and where their views align with Abbott’s and Dexcom’s 3Q26 commentary.
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